volatility – MD Update

Market Volatility — 2019 Style

June 1, 2019September 4, 2019 Scott Neal all-time high, Brock, capital of the firm, earnings, excess capital, fed rate, good quarter, increase earnings, increased volatility, interest rate lead, labor, late federal reserve pronouncement, long-term wealth, market volatility, model uncertainty, monopoly, negative real return, PE, PMU, profit of a company, real cause, real cause of the volatility, real cause of volatility, recent market, remarkable growth of earnings, reporter of the financial press, reporter of the news, reserve pronouncement, round of increased volatility, S&P 500, Scott Neal, stock, true value, true value of an investment, US stock market, volatility, volatility of the recent market, Woody Brock, world-class economist

I’m concerned because I have heard too many people recently say something along the lines of “I know the US

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Fahrenheit 2017

July 1, 2017March 23, 2018 Scott Neal 20 % decline, Bradbury, burst of the house bubble, continued bullishness, conventional circle, correct investment call, debt, Donald trump 's withdrawal, Donald trump 's withdrawal of the US, Dr. Woody Brock, economic risk, economy improve, enormous amount of political uncertainty, exception of household income, excessive debt level, Fahrenheit, fundamentals, fundamentals of the economy, international uncertainty, investment, investment call, Lloyd Blankfein, market-watchers, mere noise, model uncertainty, News, non-combustible data, nonresidential fixed investment, one-day sell-off, Paris climate change agreement, possible list, presidential tweet, prevail story, risk of the market, riskiness standpoint, Scott Neal, slippery stuff, standard measure of economic risk, steady diet of headline, stock market bounce, true value of an investment, trump, trump bump, twitter stock, uncertainty, volatility, Y

“Cram them full of non-combustible data, chock them so damned full of ‘facts’ they feel stuffed, but absolutely ‘brilliant’ with

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Will I Be Okay?

October 1, 2016 Scott Neal actual health, advisor deal, big short, client mean, effectiveness of a static asset allocation, financial well-being, let 's explore, long run scenario, maximum, maximum risk, new trade, next downturn, next downturn of the market, okay-ness, portfolio, positive expectancy, realm of financial well-being, recent study call, recollection of the great recession, refocus attention, return-sequence, return-sequence risk, run scenario, Scott Neal, static asset allocation, strong risk management, study call, trade plan, traditional advisor deal, volatile time, volatility, volatility of the market

One of the key questions on the minds, if not the lips, of your patients is likely to be, “Am

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Financial Miscellany

November 1, 2015 Scott Neal A-D line, absolute return approach, advance decline line, advance decline line of the new York stock exchange, adverse effect of over-regulation, author of unexpected return, average of the A-D line, bad quarter, breadth of the market, bull cycle, buy-hold-and-rebalance, China 's issue, current read, cyclical recovery, deflation, Ed Easterling, effective return, efficient tradeoff, fear volatility, fed play kick-the-can, federal reserve decision, filing, financial inflation, financial miscellany, focus of medium, focus of policymaker, fundamental cause of decline, good idea, implosion of emerge market, increased volatility, interest rate, investor, kick-the-can, low rate of growth, market breadth, market decline, market water, market wind, negative interest rate, possibility of structural reform, price of bond, proper incentive, prospect of deflation, recent market decline, reserve decision, retirement plan, return approach, RMD, self-styled expert, simple sailor, startup of small business, Stocks, technical indicator, tough sled, tradeoff, tradeoff of hold cash, traditional approach of buy-hold-and-rebalance, traditional stock, upcoming election cycle, volatility, volatility of Stocks, worldwide growth

In keeping with the news and the season, there are several topics to discuss this month. Here a just a

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Looking Inward

September 1, 2015 Scott Neal 24, 24 hour news cycle world, 3.9% U.S. growth, ad nauseum, aforementioned loss, aspect of financial market, author of behavioral portfolio management, behavioral portfolio management, Britain 's FTSE, China 's issue, China 's Shanghai, cognitive error, commensurate responsibility, Dr. Howard, Dr. Thomas Howard, emotion, error, family 's financial future, fed 's next move, federal reserve interest rate policy, foot of policymaker, future performance, GDP announcement, Germany 's DAX, great Britain 's FTSE, high-frequency trade, Hong Kong 's hang, Howard, huge sophisticated market price security, inability of the emerge market, inauspicious month, incentivize growth, investment, investment decision, investor, Japan 's Nikkei, let 's dig, long term growth solution, market price security, MLA, nauseum, need of a current story, nerve-wracking volatility, news cycle world, news-making event, normal market volatility, portfolio, portfolio management, precarious nature, precarious nature of the European union, primacy of growth, real question remains, recent GDP announcement, recent GDP announcement of 3.9% U.S. growth, representativeness, reserve interest rate policy, role emotion play, S&P 500, Scott Neal, social validation, stagnant nature, stagnant nature of the world 's economy, superior portfolio, term growth solution, U.S. growth, validation, volatility

August 2015 was an inauspicious month for equity markets around the world. Although the sell-off decelerated as the month drew

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Outlook 2015

January 15, 2015December 28, 2017 Scott Neal ‘09, accomplishment of goal, advisor, afte-, air of certainty, busines, caution, client, define risk, even investment objective, financial armageddon, go yea- afte- year, high degree of caution, high level of well-being, Howard mark, Howard mark of Oaktree capital management, investment, legion of otherwise intelligent voice, long term performance, loss of capital, lowe, market call, money print, mont-, mont- afte- month, Oaktree capital management, optimistic stance, otherwise intelligent voice, Outlook, perfect hindsight, preferred measure of risk, quantitative ease program, record-setting price, record-setting price of stock, robust economic growth, Scott Neal, stellar return, volatility, yea-, yea- afte- year, year of stellar return

Except during our periodic meetings with clients in which we parade out their recent and long term performance, I almost

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A Mid-Year Assessment

June 1, 2013March 28, 2017 Scott Neal ►, 10, 10 year treasury, 15.1% year, advisor, allocation, assessment, asset, asset allocation, asset class, Barclays 10 year treasury index, bet, current investment, endogenous risk, expectation of return, forecast, forecast of sort, historical data, interest rate yield rise, investment, investment strategy selection, investor, long run average, middle of huge structural change, optimal portfolio, outsized return, outsized return of the U.S. stock market, policy risk, portfolio, portfolio optimization, price of bond, run average, S&P, Scott Neal, short term volatility, static asset allocation, strategy, structural change, subjective view of the structural change, term question, term volatility, traditional analysis, traditional analyst, traditional portfolio theory, treasury index, unit of risk, volatility, wide band of short term volatility, wrong most, wrong most of the time

Some of you may look at the outsized returns of the U.S. Stock Market for 2013 (S&P is up 15.1%

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