volatility – MD Update

Investment Markets: Problem? or Opportunity?

June 1, 2022June 22, 2022 Scott Neal 9% year-to-date, aggregate U.S. Bond market, allocation, asset, asset allocation, asset class, basket of security, bond, bond loss, bond market, cash, cash remains, chief risk, correction territory, drawdowns, entire portfolio, ETFs, federal reserve policy, hold security, image001 image002, inflation, interest rate, investment, investment market, investment protocol, investor, longer-term bond, market cycle, market turn, market-like return, momentum, momentum growth strategy, near-zero interest rate policy, portfolio, portfolio objective, portfolio performance, prescribed allocation, preservation, price of the bond, rate of longer-term bond, reduce volatility, reduce volatility of the entire portfolio, risk tolerance, S&P 500, Scott Neal, specific rate of interest, stock, strategy, tenet of traditional asset allocation, tolerance, towel, traditional asset allocation, traditional asset class, traditional stock, treasury inflation, U.S. Bond, U.S. Bond market, uncertainty of the situation, upside volatility, usual asset class, volatility, wealth, wealth preservation, wealth preservation strategy

The current economy, marked by the combination of high and rising inflation, low unemployment, and the near-zero interest rate policy

Read more

Four Common Financial Mistakes to Avoid

April 1, 2022June 22, 2022 Scott Neal advisor, age 62, alternative scenario case study, benefit pay, combination ginormous, common financial mistake, common mistake, Dr. Laurence Kotlikoff, Dr. Laurence Kotlikoff claim, Drawdown, egregious mistake, financial impact of the decision, full-blown multi-year tax projection, ginormous, high school basketball coach, impact of a section, investor, large bold print, Laurence Kotlikoff, life 's big danger, longevity risk, loss of benefit, maximum lifetime family benefit, mistake, multi-year tax projection, non-financial factor, piece of rental property, possible combination ginormous, possible month, potential longevity risk, prudent estimate, prudent estimate of the unknown, scenario case study, Scott Neal, security benefit, significant capital gain, start benefit, start of benefit pay, take social security benefit, tax impact, tax impact of decision, tax-free exchange, volatility

My high school basketball coach put up a poster in our locker room. In rather large bold print it read,

Read more

Five Types of Risk and How to Deal with Them

February 1, 2022April 19, 2022 Scott Neal alert, alternative future scenario, annuity payout, asset, asset allocation, chief risk, chief risk control, defensive stock, Drawdown, Drawdown risk, estate work, financial plan, flavor of risk, future regret, future use reasonable assumption, good dividend, good hedge, good perform asset, inflation, inflation beater, investment, investment hit, investment turn, investor, investor face, let 's look, long-term goal, loss of purchase power, mind of investor, portfolio, purchase power, rational investor, real estate work, risk budget, risk tolerance questionnaire, S&P 500, Scott Neal, short term bond, short-term promise, short-term promise of gain, standard deviation of the distribution of return, stock, type of risk, volatility, volatility risk, x., x% return

Investors face several types of risk, and I contend that it is a mistake to get so focused on just

Read more

Market Volatility — 2019 Style

June 1, 2019September 4, 2019 Scott Neal all-time high, Brock, capital of the firm, earnings, excess capital, fed rate, good quarter, increase earnings, increased volatility, interest rate lead, labor, late federal reserve pronouncement, long-term wealth, market volatility, model uncertainty, monopoly, negative real return, PE, PMU, profit of a company, real cause, real cause of the volatility, real cause of volatility, recent market, remarkable growth of earnings, reporter of the financial press, reporter of the news, reserve pronouncement, round of increased volatility, S&P 500, Scott Neal, stock, true value, true value of an investment, US stock market, volatility, volatility of the recent market, Woody Brock, world-class economist

I’m concerned because I have heard too many people recently say something along the lines of “I know the US

Read more

Fahrenheit 2017

July 1, 2017March 23, 2018 Scott Neal 20 % decline, Bradbury, burst of the house bubble, continued bullishness, conventional circle, correct investment call, debt, Donald trump 's withdrawal, Donald trump 's withdrawal of the US, Dr. Woody Brock, economic risk, economy improve, enormous amount of political uncertainty, exception of household income, excessive debt level, Fahrenheit, fundamentals, fundamentals of the economy, international uncertainty, investment, investment call, Lloyd Blankfein, market-watchers, mere noise, model uncertainty, News, non-combustible data, nonresidential fixed investment, one-day sell-off, Paris climate change agreement, possible list, presidential tweet, prevail story, risk of the market, riskiness standpoint, Scott Neal, slippery stuff, standard measure of economic risk, steady diet of headline, stock market bounce, true value of an investment, trump, trump bump, twitter stock, uncertainty, volatility, Y

“Cram them full of non-combustible data, chock them so damned full of ‘facts’ they feel stuffed, but absolutely ‘brilliant’ with

Read more

Will I Be Okay?

October 1, 2016 Scott Neal actual health, advisor deal, big short, client mean, effectiveness of a static asset allocation, financial well-being, let 's explore, long run scenario, maximum, maximum risk, new trade, next downturn, next downturn of the market, okay-ness, portfolio, positive expectancy, realm of financial well-being, recent study call, recollection of the great recession, refocus attention, return-sequence, return-sequence risk, run scenario, Scott Neal, static asset allocation, strong risk management, study call, trade plan, traditional advisor deal, volatile time, volatility, volatility of the market

One of the key questions on the minds, if not the lips, of your patients is likely to be, “Am

Read more

Financial Miscellany

November 1, 2015 Scott Neal A-D line, absolute return approach, advance decline line, advance decline line of the new York stock exchange, adverse effect of over-regulation, author of unexpected return, average of the A-D line, bad quarter, breadth of the market, bull cycle, buy-hold-and-rebalance, China 's issue, current read, cyclical recovery, deflation, Ed Easterling, effective return, efficient tradeoff, fear volatility, fed play kick-the-can, federal reserve decision, filing, financial inflation, financial miscellany, focus of medium, focus of policymaker, fundamental cause of decline, good idea, implosion of emerge market, increased volatility, interest rate, investor, kick-the-can, low rate of growth, market breadth, market decline, market water, market wind, negative interest rate, possibility of structural reform, price of bond, proper incentive, prospect of deflation, recent market decline, reserve decision, retirement plan, return approach, RMD, self-styled expert, simple sailor, startup of small business, Stocks, technical indicator, tough sled, tradeoff, tradeoff of hold cash, traditional approach of buy-hold-and-rebalance, traditional stock, upcoming election cycle, volatility, volatility of Stocks, worldwide growth

In keeping with the news and the season, there are several topics to discuss this month. Here a just a

Read more

Looking Inward

September 1, 2015 Scott Neal 24, 24 hour news cycle world, 3.9% U.S. growth, ad nauseum, aforementioned loss, aspect of financial market, author of behavioral portfolio management, behavioral portfolio management, Britain 's FTSE, China 's issue, China 's Shanghai, cognitive error, commensurate responsibility, Dr. Howard, Dr. Thomas Howard, emotion, error, family 's financial future, fed 's next move, federal reserve interest rate policy, foot of policymaker, future performance, GDP announcement, Germany 's DAX, great Britain 's FTSE, high-frequency trade, Hong Kong 's hang, Howard, huge sophisticated market price security, inability of the emerge market, inauspicious month, incentivize growth, investment, investment decision, investor, Japan 's Nikkei, let 's dig, long term growth solution, market price security, MLA, nauseum, need of a current story, nerve-wracking volatility, news cycle world, news-making event, normal market volatility, portfolio, portfolio management, precarious nature, precarious nature of the European union, primacy of growth, real question remains, recent GDP announcement, recent GDP announcement of 3.9% U.S. growth, representativeness, reserve interest rate policy, role emotion play, S&P 500, Scott Neal, social validation, stagnant nature, stagnant nature of the world 's economy, superior portfolio, term growth solution, U.S. growth, validation, volatility

August 2015 was an inauspicious month for equity markets around the world. Although the sell-off decelerated as the month drew

Read more

Outlook 2015

January 15, 2015December 28, 2017 Scott Neal ‘09, accomplishment of goal, advisor, afte-, air of certainty, busines, caution, client, define risk, even investment objective, financial armageddon, go yea- afte- year, high degree of caution, high level of well-being, Howard mark, Howard mark of Oaktree capital management, investment, legion of otherwise intelligent voice, long term performance, loss of capital, lowe, market call, money print, mont-, mont- afte- month, Oaktree capital management, optimistic stance, otherwise intelligent voice, Outlook, perfect hindsight, preferred measure of risk, quantitative ease program, record-setting price, record-setting price of stock, robust economic growth, Scott Neal, stellar return, volatility, yea-, yea- afte- year, year of stellar return

Except during our periodic meetings with clients in which we parade out their recent and long term performance, I almost

Read more

A Mid-Year Assessment

June 1, 2013March 28, 2017 Scott Neal ►, 10, 10 year treasury, 15.1% year, advisor, allocation, assessment, asset, asset allocation, asset class, Barclays 10 year treasury index, bet, current investment, endogenous risk, expectation of return, forecast, forecast of sort, historical data, interest rate yield rise, investment, investment strategy selection, investor, long run average, middle of huge structural change, optimal portfolio, outsized return, outsized return of the U.S. stock market, policy risk, portfolio, portfolio optimization, price of bond, run average, S&P, Scott Neal, short term volatility, static asset allocation, strategy, structural change, subjective view of the structural change, term question, term volatility, traditional analysis, traditional analyst, traditional portfolio theory, treasury index, unit of risk, volatility, wide band of short term volatility, wrong most, wrong most of the time

Some of you may look at the outsized returns of the U.S. Stock Market for 2013 (S&P is up 15.1%

Read more