S&P 500 – MD Update

Market Volatility — 2019 Style

June 1, 2019September 4, 2019 Scott Neal all-time high, Brock, capital of the firm, earnings, excess capital, fed rate, good quarter, increase earnings, increased volatility, interest rate lead, labor, late federal reserve pronouncement, long-term wealth, market volatility, model uncertainty, monopoly, negative real return, PE, PMU, profit of a company, real cause, real cause of the volatility, real cause of volatility, recent market, remarkable growth of earnings, reporter of the financial press, reporter of the news, reserve pronouncement, round of increased volatility, S&P 500, Scott Neal, stock, true value, true value of an investment, US stock market, volatility, volatility of the recent market, Woody Brock, world-class economist

I’m concerned because I have heard too many people recently say something along the lines of “I know the US

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How to Resolve 2017 and Move on

December 1, 2017March 23, 2018 Scott Neal 17.6% year-to-date, After-Action, After-Action report, assess interim progress, benefit of an After-Action report, big fan of new year 's resolution, Bitcoin, chance of corrective action, coach talk, corrective action, Dan Sullivan of strategic coach talk, disappointment, feel of dissatisfaction, good year, healthcare practice, honest look, interim progress, let 's figure, major life lesson, Michael 's new book, Michael Hyatt, mindset, mindset change, new year 's resolution, NYSE Bitcoin, NYSE Bitcoin index, opportunity principle, portfolio 's performance, resolution, S&P 500, S&P 500 total return, Scott Neal, slight inflation, so-so year, strategic coach talk, Sullivan caution, terrific year, year 's resolution, year go

What’s the first thing that pops into your mind as you look back on 2017? Was it a good year?

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Different Strokes

February 1, 2017March 23, 2018 Scott Neal accompany chart, accompany chart of the S&P 500, Alexander elder, allocation, asset, asset allocation, buy-hold-and-rebalance, buy-low, chart book, chart combine inertia, chart of stock price, Dodd 's security analysis, early proponent of asset allocation, elder, elder 's chart, fast personal computer, finance professor, investment, investment professional, lead school of finance, level of volatility, mantra, mantra of investment professional, modern portfolio theory, Mordecai Kurz, optimal point, optimization of risk, order of the day, PnF, point-and-figure, portfolio theory, practical limitation of modern portfolio theory, Professor Markowitz, Roger Gibson, S&P 500, Scott Neal, static asset allocation, stock, stroke, teacher of trader, technical analysis, trader, trader 's attention, trend shift, update of point-and-figure, value-oriented invest, volume data, while price, widely-used investment textbook, wise investor

Once upon a time, the most widely-used investment textbook was Graham and Dodd’s Security Analysis. Still relied upon, it was

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The Seat Belt Light Is On

March 1, 2016 Scott Neal −3.8 percent, apparent appeal, appropriate right, avalanche of panic, big provider, big provider of exchange-traded fund, blended earnings decline, blinder, campaign politician, China 's economic decline, China 's purchase, China 's slowdown, Chinese stock market result, collapse of global market, consecutive quarter of decline, consumption, current level of fear, current market instability, decline interest rate, doomsday story, Dr. Alan blinder, Dr. Alan blinder of Princeton, drill firm, earnings, earnings decline, effect of China 's slowdown, energy stock, evolve service sector support stability, far big problem, fiduciary perspective, GDP, good lead indicator, household debt, international stock, large energy stock, major morning headline, manufacture worker, mid-cap, morning headline, new ETF, non-service sector, oil price, overall stock market, reasonable mind, S&P 500, S&P 500 company, Scott Neal, seat belt light, service sector support stability, slow consumption, stock, stock market result, thing oil, three-plus decade, three-plus decade of decline interest rate, unexpected rise

One of my favorite books, for many reasons, is The Fourth Turning, by William Strauss and Neil Howe. It begins

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Déjà Vu, All Over Again

December 1, 2015January 20, 2017 Scott Neal 30 year U.S. treasury, 65 % bull, aggregate earnings, bad quarter, big year-over-year decline, bullish consensus, contrary indicator, Déjà Vu, downright alarm, earnings, exception of interest rate, extraordinary stock market growth, financial plan, fundamental driver, fundamental driver of the extraordinary stock market growth, future of the stock market, GDP, GDP growth, growth rate, growth rate of aggregate earnings, growth rate of earnings, historical index data, impend rate hike, interest rate, investment, investor psychology, level of aggregate earnings, level of optimism, long run return, long time reader, long-dated, long-dated bond, magnitude of stock repurchase, mean reversion, member of the fed, money manager, non-fundamental factor, portfolio, primary impact of GDP growth, quarter of the S&P 500 company, rate of return, run return, S&P 500, S&P 500 company, Scott Neal, sentiment, slow erosion of expected return, slowdown, stock, stock market, stock market growth, stock market rally, stock repurchase, strategy, survey of advisor, time reader, variable, year-over-year decline

As of this writing, the stock market has just produced one of its worst quarters (Q3) in a very long

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Looking Inward

September 1, 2015 Scott Neal 24, 24 hour news cycle world, 3.9% U.S. growth, ad nauseum, aforementioned loss, aspect of financial market, author of behavioral portfolio management, behavioral portfolio management, Britain 's FTSE, China 's issue, China 's Shanghai, cognitive error, commensurate responsibility, Dr. Howard, Dr. Thomas Howard, emotion, error, family 's financial future, fed 's next move, federal reserve interest rate policy, foot of policymaker, future performance, GDP announcement, Germany 's DAX, great Britain 's FTSE, high-frequency trade, Hong Kong 's hang, Howard, huge sophisticated market price security, inability of the emerge market, inauspicious month, incentivize growth, investment, investment decision, investor, Japan 's Nikkei, let 's dig, long term growth solution, market price security, MLA, nauseum, need of a current story, nerve-wracking volatility, news cycle world, news-making event, normal market volatility, portfolio, portfolio management, precarious nature, precarious nature of the European union, primacy of growth, real question remains, recent GDP announcement, recent GDP announcement of 3.9% U.S. growth, representativeness, reserve interest rate policy, role emotion play, S&P 500, Scott Neal, social validation, stagnant nature, stagnant nature of the world 's economy, superior portfolio, term growth solution, U.S. growth, validation, volatility

August 2015 was an inauspicious month for equity markets around the world. Although the sell-off decelerated as the month drew

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Maintaining Optionality

May 1, 2015 Scott Neal 14 % more money, 20 % decline, advantage of a down market, Antifragile, appropriate strategy, asset, asymmetric upside, author of good seller, available cash, average new money, brief economics lesson, bucket approach, buy-hold-and-rebalance, buy-hold-and-rebalance strategy, cash, cash rest, conventional monetary policy, dollar-cost, dollar-cost average, down market, economics lesson, efficacy of ZIRP, face of ZIRP, fed fund rate, five year CD, fund rate, go-go year, hypothetical dollar-cost, interest rate, investor, legendary investor, limited downside, money market rate, more money, non-conventional policy, Optionaility, Optionality, past four, portfolio, price of financial asset, property of asymmetric upside, real beauty of dollar-cost average, S&P 500, Scott Neal, specific goal, stock, traditional advice, unique property of optionality, value of cash, value of cash rest, zero-interest rate policy, ZIRP

We begin with a brief economics lesson and then move to how it affects investors. During periods of slow economic

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New Highs: What to Do Now!

June 1, 2014March 28, 2017 Scott Neal advisor, all-time high, amount of self-exploration, appropriate investment strategy, asset, asset allocation, assumption, capacity, capital preservation strategy, chosen asset allocation, consideration of the data, current investment, current situation, data gather process, fed, financial strategy, gather knowledge, good interest, good interest of the advisor, good look house, good quarter, good quarter of growth, high level of volatility, investment, investment strategy, investor, new high, next step of the data gather process, preservation strategy, quantitative ease, recession-induced, recession-induced catastrophe, relevant question regard risk tolerance, risk capacity, rosy outlook, S&P 500, Scott Neal, self exploration, short-term decision make, strategy, time horizon, tolerance, tool support, unprecedented level of quantitative ease, vision, wealth growth strategy

Some people look at the S&P 500 at 2,000 and the DOW at 17,000 and feel that they have missed

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Investing in the New Year

October 1, 2013 Scott Neal 10 year average, 10 year average of the S&P 500 index, absolute return strategy, asset, asset allocator, bond, bond value, buy-and-hold investor, close net asset value, current bull market, discount brokerage firm, Doug short, downside, downside risk, ETF, experience self, father of behavioral economics, grow universe, grow universe of exchange, incur transaction cost, interest rate rise, investment, investment of respectable size, investor, long bull market, loss ring, market fall, memory of risk, midst of the long bull market, miss market gain, move counter, movement of an index, new year, past gain, portfolio, pretty wide array, pretty wide array of ETF 's, Princeton professor of psychology, remember self, respectable size, return strategy, risk tolerance, S&P 500, S&P 500 index, Scott Neal, self, serious downturn, short term bond, stock, stock market, term bond, traditional openend, turn of the calendar, vast majority of advisor, wealth preservation

According to Daniel Kahneman, Princeton professor of psychology and the so-called father of behavioral economics, it is our “remembering self”

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On Alert

April 1, 2013March 28, 2017 MD-Update Staff 6.5% unemployment, alert, artificial fuel, asset, asset price, B., catastrophe hit, comparative result, comparative result of operation, complacency, corporate profitability, correction, current price level, current price level of stock, defensive readiness, evidence of a bubble, fed, financial news channel, full employment, fundamental perspective, future financial well-being, heightened state of defensive readiness, infusion, infusion of liquidity, Lance Roberts, level of profitability, middle of the cold war, monetary tool, Mr, Mr. B., Mr. Bernanke, plausible comparison, profitability, readiness drill, real threat, record high, relative growth trend, relative growth trend of profit, rise asset price, S&P 500, Scott Neal, significant rally, square ball drop, stock, stock market, threat, venerable index, wall of worry, worry end

My military service happened right in the middle of the Cold War. Serving with the Army’s 1st Armored Division in

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